There’s one number in the latest Leger poll on voter intentions that should have Justin Trudeau’s office a little concerned.
Anyone watching that speech would be left with one clear take away, Trudeau isn’t about to take a walk in the snow and suddenly announce his retirement. It seems the reports of Trudeau’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.Article contentThe timing of that is still to be determined.
There is an existing coalition deal that sees the NDP agreeing to prop up the Liberals until 2025, but Jagmeet Singh has indicated he’s not happy with how things are going. The NDP Leader said he could pull his support if he doesn’t see action on healthcare.That wouldn’t necessarily trigger an election — we’d need to have a confidence vote take place in Parliament. Outside of the opposition declaring they have no confidence in the government, we may not see one until the spring budget.
Between now and then, expect the political advisors around Trudeau and Poilievre to be keeping a close eye on the Ontario numbers in polls like the one from Leger.Article content Nationally, that poll had the two main parties just three points apart — 33% of decided voters backing the Conservatives and 30% backing the Liberals with the NDP well back at 21%. The Green Party takes 3% voters support and the People’s Party just 2%.For the past three elections, Trudeau’s Liberals have won with overwhelming support in Atlantic Canada along with strong support in Quebec and Ontario.
It’s a major shift and one that, like the Ontario numbers, we should keep an eye on heading into 2023.
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