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According to a poll of economists conducted by Reuters, the Federal Reserve will likely initiate its first interest rate cut in June. This aligns loosely with the CME’s FedWatch tool, which predicts only an 8.5% probability of the first rate cut occurring in March, a 34.9% in May, and a 77.25% probability of lower rates in place by June.
The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting “minutes” are a detailed record of the committee's last policy-setting meeting. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy. Investors are hoping that it will also include insights regarding the timing of the first rate cut.
The chart above is a daily Japanese candlestick chart of spot gold with support and resistance trendlines created from the higher lows , to the lower highs . It clearly illustrates the hard selloff that occurred immediately after the January CPI report was released. The bearish momentum was short-lived but took gold prices to $1984 before reversing indirection. As of today, gold has had four consecutive trading days of higher highs, higher lows, and higher closes.
Tomorrow’s release of the minutes will be an important report that hopefully provides more insight into the internal thinking of Federal Reserve members. The recent gains in gold were the result of both dollar weakness and market sentiment regarding the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The combination of dollar weakness and rate cuts by the Fed could easily take gold prices higher from current values.
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