Analysts say this is the most “risky and volatile” point in the conflict yet, with Israel and Iran on the brink of direct military exchange.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply once more amid retaliatory threats exchanged by Israel and Iran , after Tehran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv late Tuesday .
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst at RANE network, said Israel is likely to be looking at a more substantial reprisal than it did in April, when it hit an Iranian air base with a missile in response to a similar attack. “But if the attacks are seen as substantial, if they interrupt oil exports or cause national humiliation for Iran by, say, destroying sensitive nuclear sites, then Iran is likely to consider its next strike against Israel.”Iran is in a “very difficult position” of being torn between not wanting to escalate the conflict with Israel and showing support to its proxies, Genauer said.
“If Hezbollah is not able to operate south of the Litani, it wouldn't have the capability to strike directly at Israeli targets,” he said. The Lebanese government in recent days said it is ready to fully implement the 2006 resolution and deploy its army south of the river to stop war with Israel.“Whether the situation escalates more broadly in the region will very much depend on the extent of Israel’s operation in Lebanon. A lengthy operation will increase that likelihood,” Genauer said.
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