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The central bank’s updated interest rate forecast, also known as the “dot plot,” shows the committee sees the Fed Funds rate ending the year at 4.6%, unchanged from December. Although the central bank continues to signal rate cuts, it remains reluctant to provide exact timing. The monetary policy statement struck a very optimistic tone regarding the health of the economy.
The updated projections show that the central bank expects interest rates to end 2025 at 3.9%, up slightly from 3.6% reported in December. Interest rates are expected to end in 2026 around 3.1%, up from the previous forecast of 2.9%. Looking at inflation, the central bank doesn’t expect core PCE inflation to hit the 2% target until 2026. Core inflation is expected to rise 2.4% this year, unchanged from December’s projections. Inflation is expected to rise 2.2% next year, up from December’s forecast of 2.1%.
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