Gold price action hints of a brewing stock market crash

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Gold price action hints of a brewing stock market crash
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Gold price action hints of a brewing stock market crash

Gold has had a tumultuous year to say the least. The safe-haven metal soared above long-term resistance at $2000 per ounce briefly in March after Russia began its military occupation in Ukraine, then sank below long-term support at $1700 this week as the Fed toughened its approach to repressing the highest inflation experienced in over 40 years.

During the post-FOMC meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned consumers economic pain is on the horizon as the central bank focuses on bringing inflation down."Reducing inflation will likely require a sustained time of below trend growth," said Powell on Wednesday. Not only did the U.S. central bank raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third consecutive time on Wednesday, the British, Swiss, and Norwegian central banks all delivered large hikes on Thursday as well. In fact, central banks in the 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 1,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout "dove", sticking on Thursday with its decades-long, ultra-low rates policy that has destroyed its bond market.

The bullish case sees crisis-hedge gold buying creating a bottom in the Gold/S&P Ratio when the stock market peaked at an all-time high to begin 2022. The weekly chart also shows this ratio in the process of forming the right shoulder of an inverse head & shoulders bottoming pattern. After back-testing it's falling 200-day moving average in mid-August, which coincided with a downtrend line from the January peak, the world's most closely followed index has turned lower and is moving sharply towards the June low at 3636.

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