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Gold futures experienced a dramatic rally on which concluded on Wednesday, July 17. The most active August contract reached an unprecedented new record intraday high of $2488.40, just $12 shy of the symbolic $2500 mark. This surge, coupled with Tuesday's record close of $2467.80, underscores a week of remarkable achievements in the precious metals market.
The rally resulted in gold futures gaining over $185 in just 17 trading days, prompting an expected price correction. By the weekly settlement, gold had retraced 50% of its recent gains, falling within acceptable levels for a bull market correction. Analysts suggest that a correction between 50% and 78% would still be considered normal before signaling a potential pivot or key reversal.
While an immediate rate cut at the next FOMC meeting is unlikely, there's a high probability of a rate cut in September. The CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 97.1% chance of the Fed initiating its first rate cut since March 2022, with a 92.6% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction and a 4.5% chance of a half-point cut.
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