(Kitco News) - Fundamentals, positioning, sentiment, and technical analysis all point to a further delay in gold’s big move upward, according to Chris Yates of Acheron Insights.
“For the short to medium-term fundamentals that influence the gold price - primarily the likes of real yields and the dollar - the outlook is still somewhat mixed for gold, after what has been a terrific year for the sector,” Yates wrote.
Yates said the U.S. dollar’s performance is one factor that makes him cautious about gold’s near-term upside. “I remain neutral to bullish the dollar over the next few quarters, and generally bearish on a cyclical perspective,” he said. “And, while they don’t always trade inversely, a spike in the dollar is most probably going to put pressure on the precious metals market. I think this remains a material risk for the time being.
He said that sentiment is a bit more encouraging for the precious metal. “The fact that gold recently tested its all-time highs amid very little fanfare or media coverage is absolutely bullish,” Yates said. “Indeed, if we assess sentiment via such measures as flows into the GLD ETF, we can see how the recent highs were actually accompanied with only mediocre flows.
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