The German government will predict a contraction for this year instead of sluggish growth when it updates its outlook for Europe’s biggest economy next month, highlighting the nation’s plight as its industrial sector struggles.
Gross domestic product is likely to shrink again in the third quarter and expand only slightly in the final three months of the year, meaning the economy will contract in 2023 on an annual basis, according to people familiar with the revised forecast, who asked not to be identified ahead of publication.
The IMF said in July it expects German GDP to shrink by 0.3% this year, making it the only Group of Seven nation to suffer a contraction. The Washington—based fund sees the wider euro area growing by 0.9%, the UK by 0.4% and the US by 1.8%. Factors holding Germany back include weak demand from China, a shortage of skilled workers and the lingering effects of the energy crisis combined with sticky inflation which is crimping domestic demand.
“Economic development is therefore likely to remain very weak in the third quarter and is not expected to pick up speed until around the turn of the year,” the ministry added.
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