The figure of zero growth for the second quarter was in line with a first estimate published in late July. Year on year, adjusted German GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter
Germany’s economy stagnated in the second quarter from the previous three months, showing no sign of recovery from a winter recession and cementing its position as one of the world’s weakest major economies.
Quarter on quarter, economic activity had fallen by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023. Two consecutive quarters of contraction fulfills the technical definition of a recession. Weak purchasing power, thinned-out industrial order books, a slowdown in the Chinese economy and the impact of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades all point to weak economic activity in Germany going forward, Brzeski said.
Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts GDP will post a 0.2 per cent contraction in the third quarter, before a rebound of 0.4 per cent quarter on quarter in the last quarter of the year. That would mean that German GDP falls by 0.2 per cent year on year in 2023.
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