(UPDATE) PARIS — Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimated that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.
PARIS — Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimated that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.
The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023 attack.Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, 'or approximately one in 35 inhabitants,' the study said.The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so it did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.AFP was unable to independently verify the death toll.On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations has said they are reliable.'A good estimate'The researchers used a statistical method called 'capture-recapture' that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.'We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital,' lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.'Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,' Jamaluddine said.'Criticism' expectedThe researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems — such as a heart attack — could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of health care, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.The new study suggested that this projection 'might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease' in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor. AFP
Casualties 40% Higher Than Recorded Says Study
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Gaza Death Toll in Israel-Hamas War Estimated to Be 40% HigherA new study published in The Lancet estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was significantly higher than reported by the Palestinian health ministry. The researchers used a statistical method called 'capture–recapture' that analyzes data from multiple sources, including the health ministry, an online survey, and social media obituaries.
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