OPINION: An old adage says the US share market will hold on to an early January rise for the rest of the year. Many indicators say that might be right in 2023.
Although it has been almost a decade since I gave up a full-time job in finance, markets – and market oddities – still fascinate me, especially when they send signals that run against a widely held consensus among analysts and investors.
At some point in my career, I was introduced to an old almanac that offered an endless array of heuristics about US stock markets’ past performance.P 500 index makes a net gain during the first five trading days of the calendar year, equities will perform well for the year overall. When I asked my colleagues to check it for the 1950-2014 period, they found that it held true more than 80 per cent of the time.
Several high-frequency indicators for late 2022 and early 2023 have been better than expected, notably in Europe.
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