Fed’s Goolsbee Says Traditional Economic View May Cause Overshoot

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Fed’s Goolsbee Says Traditional Economic View May Cause Overshoot
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(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers shouldn’t place too much weight on the traditional economic idea that steep job losses are needed to quell inflation, which he said could lead officials to raise interest rates too high.Most Read from BloombergChina Puts Evergrande’s Billionaire Founder Under Police ControlElon Musk Wins US Space Force Contract for StarshieldPeloton Soars After Deal With Lululemon to Share Fitness ContentCitadel Is Ready t

This traditionalist view, Goolsbee said, “misses key features of our recent inflationary experience and that, in today’s environment, believing too strongly in the inevitability of a large trade-off between inflation and unemployment comes with the serious risk of a near-term policy error.” The comments were prepared for delivery Thursday at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Goolsbee said policymakers should instead focus on how different components of core inflation are decelerating — with cooling still needed especially in housing inflation — as well as monitor productivity growth, not obsess too much on near-term real wages and keep an eye on inflation expectations.

Goolsbee, a voter on policy this year, didn’t say whether he favors another increase or not, though he called progress so far on inflation “really excellent.” He echoed comments made earlier this week that a soft landing — where inflation fully eases without causing a recession — is possible, but risks remain.

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