Kitco News collects and features the top financial, economic and geopolitical news from around the world. Kitco's aggregated sources include some of the top newswires in the world including the Association Press, Canadian Press, Japanese Economic Newswire, and United Press International.
WASHINGTON, Sept 20 - Confident the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, investors are far more focused on the release of new forecasts on Wednesday that will reveal how much U.S. central bank policymakers buy into the prospect of an economic"soft landing" and what rate environment will prevail alongside it.
Policymakers' projections are"likely to undergo meaningful revisions ... including upgrades to growth and the labor market and a downward revision to inflation, at least in 2023," wrote Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, who expects the main body of Fed officials to still project one more rate hike this year.
As of the last set of quarterly projections, published in June, the median Fed policymaker end-year projection was for economic growth of 1.0%, underlying inflation of 3.9%, and the benchmark overnight interest rate to be in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the range approved at the last meeting in July.
How much those values shift, particularly around the rate cuts envisioned next year, and what the first glimpse of 2026 says about the longer-run outlook, will amount to a tacit vote on whether the Fed's faith in the soft landing, a scenario in which inflation falls without major job losses or a recession, has grown stronger because of the economy's resilience, or weaker because of concern that price pressures might persist and force an even tighter policy stance.
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