False dawn or not
S&P 500 jubilation continued yesterday, and markets didn't really notice Fed's Williams throwing cold water on giving up the fight against inflation prematurely. The excessive moves in USD retreat well below 111.50 throughout yesterday, and plunge in Treasury yields combined with very risk-on posture in junk corporate bonds, provided daily continuation of Monday's momentum , with real assets beyond oil amplifying the growing risk appetite.
That crisis would of course happen abroad, not in the States – there are plenty of European banking concerns as evidence in rising CDS, sovereign yields, energy crisis, slowing manufacturing, slowing consumer demand, housing, and of course strong inflation data abroad, which the strong dollar helps to offload elsewhere.
For now, I'm still leaning towards the stock market advance at least stalling, and starting to form bearish divergencies – the rally of the last 36+ hrs has been excessive, broadening, and can be called a stampede. Now, it's up to the herd to stop, and realize that it hadn't run on any good reason.
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