Citi’s Nathan Sheets thinks the prospects for global growth look unusually grim, forecasting mild downturns in several major economies.
Citi’s top economist, Nathan Sheets, forecasts a series of “rolling recessions” and more interest rate rises this year as the hangover from the pandemic, surging inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war plague the global economy.remind investors there is still more work to do on the inflation front
Downturns are also expected in several emerging market economies including South Korea, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Russia.. This will be key to helping Australia narrowly avoid a recession, Mr Sheets said, supported by pandemic-era savings buffers and a record-high participation rate. Mr Sheets expects inflation to fall this year but nowhere close to central bank targets. Sticky services inflation is the key, as it has gradually climbed upward since the middle of last year and shows few signs of abating. This has had important implications for the labour market, resulting in strong demand for workers, and fuelling wage growth.
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