Trump, inflation, housing and more: Our economics team outlines possible upsides and downsides for 2025, and talks to bank CEOs and other heavy hitters about what may lie ahead
We’d almost be looking forward to putting 2024 behind us—if the coming year weren’t even more uncertain.
We have very different circumstances than the U.S. in that our consumers have been much more directly impacted by higher rates. The U.S. consumer is strong, credit default is low, and that’s because they haven’t repriced their mortgages. They have a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which causes enormous challenges to the financial system, and occasionally banks fail because of it, but it protects the consumer through a downturn. The outlook is less clear in Canada.
With the rise of Indigenous equity ownership, increased land transfer and economic justice outcomes, the Indigenous economy has surpassed the $100-billion mark, signalling a new era of strength and innovation for Indigenous Nations. This achievement reflects growth across key sectors like tech, energy, sustainable resources and finance, with Indigenous-led businesses increasingly participating within national and global markets.
Projections currently reflect increased confidence that 2025 will deliver the long-awaited soft landing in advanced economies, including Canada. The bet is that the disinflationary forces enabling central banks to lower policy rates will continue, and Xi Jinping’s policy stimulus will be enough to buoy China’s troubled economy. All good outcomes for Canada given that a third of our GDP is exports , and the price of oil and other commodities are highly influenced by Chinese demand.
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