European Central Bank expected to raise interest rates by 26 points by late July
The European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on July 27, according to all economists in a Reuters poll, a slight majority of whom were now also expecting another hike in September.
ECB policymakers have all but promised one in July, leading all 75 respondents polled in the July 14-19 Reuters survey to conclude it will. “July is pretty much a given, they’ve communicated they will hike and it’s not going to be a surprise to anyone. The question is whether they will have to hike in September or not,” said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.
The U.S. Federal Reserve was expected to deliver a final hike in the current cycle a day before the ECB’s meeting. Slightly more than half the respondents in that survey expect one rate cut or more by end-March. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices and gives a better picture of underlying demand, would be slightly lower than its current level of 6.8 per cent by year-end, said 20 of 32 respondents to an extra question. Twelve said significantly lower.
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