India’s weakest monsoon rains in about a century are becoming the biggest risk for the fast growing economy as food prices rise and farming incomes fall on lower crop production, according to economists.
Moments before India published a strong quarterly report card on Thursday showing the economy accelerating to its fastest in a year, the weather department warned August rains were the lowest since at least 1901.
“Going forward, the intensification of the El Nino weather phenomenon is the biggest risk to the rural economy and overall gross domestic product growth,” said Pranjul Bhandari, an economist with HSBC Holdings Plc. Nomura Holdings economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi raised their India GDP growth forecast to 5.9% from 5.5% earlier but flagged risks of a slowdown in economic activity.
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