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LONDON, May 14 - The dollar edged higher on Tuesday as traders awaited U.S. inflation data, while the yen hovered near a two-week low, stoking intervention worries.
Money markets have dialled back their expectations of Fed rate cuts this year due to sticky inflation and are now pricing in about 40 basis points of easing this year, compared with 150 bps of cuts anticipated at the start of 2024. They are also pricing in a first rate cut, with about a 50% chance, only in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"U.S. inflation data for April likely to be the most important data point of the week, especially after the market has reacted sensibly on rather weak U.S. data recently, increasing its rate cut expectations somewhat," said Antje Praefcke, FX analyst at Commerzbank. Japan's Ministry of Finance is suspected to have intervened in the currency market at the end of April through early May after the yen hit a 34-year low of 160.245 on April 29.
In other currencies, the euro was about flat at $1.0797 but is up 1% against the dollar so far this month, while sterling was flat on the day at $1.2556 after falling to $1.2510 after BoE's Chief Pill's remarks on potential summer cuts.
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