David Staples: Rachel Notley has one major card still to play to stop surge of Danielle Smith's UCP

David Staples: Rachel Notley has one major card still to play to stop surge of Danielle Smith's UCP ableg abpoli

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Of course, any one poll should be seen as suspect. But if you see a trend from many polls over time, the results become more credible. For example, from March 2018 until the April 2019 election, every major poll in Alberta showed the UCP ahead of the NDP. The UCP won 55 per cent of the popular electoral vote while the incumbent NDP won just 33 per cent, a massive 22 percentage differential.

UCP fortunes started to tick up again in the past year, first with its leadership review last spring, then with Kenney pushed out last May.In the last two months — even as there’s been no shortage of verbal SNAFUs and negative media coverage of Smith — the UCP has won four out of five polls, including the last two.

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