Canadian equities likely have a bit further to fall, but won\u0027t decline as much as in prior recessionary periods. Read more.
Broadly speaking, our results were consistent with our a priori expectations. In general, most assets have discounted very high odds of a downturn , although the dispersion is quite wide. This analysis heavily relies on the assumption that they will behave similarly in the current recession as they have in the past , but we still believe important insights can be gleaned.Article content
Besides U.S. small caps, another area of the stock market that is close to fully discounting a recessionary outcome is Asia . This is not a huge surprise as the MSCI Asia Pacific index has fallen about 37 per cent from its high, an even larger drawdown than during the COVID-19 recession . Similarly, emerging-market equities and U.S. equities are approaching the sorts of declines we would expect to see when a recession is in the price.
For example, in Europe, we believe a decline of a bit more than 30 per cent from the highs is consistent with a recession, whereas the Stoxx 600 has only fallen 22 per cent thus far. Given that the region probably has the greatest economic challenges of anywhere in the world , the risk/reward — in terms of thinking about having equity exposure in Europe — remains unfavourable, despite its allure of being “cheap.
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