Common Errors about Nigeria (IV): Vote-buying SIMONKOLAWOLELIVE! BY SIMONKOLAWOLE Millions of Nigerians have been going through hell in the last few weeks as a result of the change in the colour
SIMONKOLAWOLELIVE! BY SIMONKOLAWOLE
I’ve been writing a series on the common errors about Nigeria. This instalment may be my most controversial take so far, but I want to quickly drop this here — the role of “vote-buying” in presidential elections is grossly exaggerated. I would not argue that vote-buying does not play any role at all — that would be disingenuous of me. There are voters who only decide who to vote for on election day based on financial and material inducements.
If we assume that money always buys votes — as we tend to believe — I do not think President Goodluck Jonathan would have lost the 2015 presidential election. With the kind of information that later came into the public domain, I would guess that the PDP outspent APC by a ratio of at least 2:1 but still fell short. This was despite being the party in power, in charge of all the coercive agencies of the state that play key roles in the conduct of elections.
Regional sentiments were also evident in 2003, when Obasanjo — with no major Yoruba opponent to compete with — finally won the south-west states. Buhari, who was growing in popularity in the north, defeated Obasanjo in 10 out of the 19 states. He subsequently held on to his northern base and gained more support until he finally won in 2015, despite all the money pumped in by the PDP. No amount of money could buy Buhari’s loyal voters who clearly had an affinity with him.
A second clarification: I have deliberately limited my argument to vote-buying in presidential elections because that is thought to be the motive behind the naira redesign. It is much easier to buy your way into winning house of assembly, governorship and national assembly polls because of the geographical coverage which makes vote-trading more effective. True, you can win the presidential ticket of your party by bribing delegates. The numbers are manageable.
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