The New Democrats need to nab something like 30 per cent of the PC vote to control the assembly. That is far from unimaginable
EDMONTON — This is a column that I could perhaps write up formally and publish with a fancypants scholarly-sounding title. “Some Structural Considerations in the 2019 Alberta Election,” maybe. But really this article is mere news consumer advice. The first published election poll since the dissolution of Alberta’s assembly appeared on Sunday, and we can probably expect the trickle of polls to become a torrent now. Or at least a bubbly, vivacious creek.
Interpreters and guessers had other disadvantages, of course. It was hard to imagine that Albertans were really going to send a New Democratic majority to the legislature. The down-ballot struggle between Jim Prentice’s PCs and Brian Jean’s rump Wildrose Party was not easy for cosseted, Chardonnay-bibbing urban reporters to assess.In principle this election should be easier analytically. There are two highly dominant parties.
If you have watched a few federal elections, you may assume that it is the United Conservatives who have a vote-efficiency problem in the hinterland. So they do, but the New Democrats have a vote-concentration issue of at least equal size, and probably greater in practice.
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