The research partnership Climate Action Tracker on Thursday released its latest projections of how greenhouse gas emissions may dangerously raise the global average temperature.
The result is similar to last year’s—a troubling 2.7C increase above pre-industrial levels if policies don’t improve—but a different point of comparison adds a new dimension to the finding.If current policies remain in place, the world will heat up by an average of 2.7C by 2100. That’s very, very deep into the danger zone.If countries pursue their stated, more aggressive carbon-cutting targets, it falls to 2C, which still fails the Paris agreement test of “well below” that very mark.
In a report detailing the projections, CAT researchers also document how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to accelerate a global rush for gas. There is more gas infrastructure proposed, approved or under construction than can likely exist without the world exceeding the Paris Agreement warming limit of 1.5C. Existing gas infrastructure alone pushes the world off the International Energy Agency’s “net zero emissions” pathway by 2030.
The focus on gas and its potential to thwart climate goals puts a grimmer focus on the situation than the International Energy Agency’s recent World Energy Outlook, which cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a turning point in the race toward clean energy “not just for the time being, but for decades to come,” according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Yet viewed from another perspective, the 2022 numbers are less grim: They are a vast improvement over the best case scenario at COP15 in Copenhagen, where Climate Action Tracker released its first projections.
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