CIBC World Markets economist expects sales to drop further in 2023 before modest rebound
The fog of uncertainty that has kept real estate sellers and buyers on the sidelines in recent months will start to clear in 2023, predicts Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
All of Bay Street is watching for the next signal from the Bank of Canada, which has raised its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent at the start of 2022 to 4.25 per cent today as it seeks to rein in inflation. So far, the job market remains strong, Mr. Tal adds, but he doesn’t rule out an increase in unemployment in 2023.Mr. Tal also expects obstinate sellers to become more realistic about the price they will accept when they realize the conditions that led to the February 2022 peak won’t be returning soon.While Mr.
Many of the people Mr. Rocca is talking with put off listing last summer and fall hoping the market would improve. He is currently preparing some listings for late January and early February.Most of the homeowners he is hearing from understand that prices have dropped 20 per cent from their peak in midtown Toronto, he says.Mr. Rocca says homeowners who had properties listed in the fall that failed to sell should come out with a new strategy – and a lower price – in January.
Even in Toronto’s most established neighbourhoods, where prices tend to be more stable, he knows of people who are fearful about whether they will be able to hold onto their houses.
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