ANALYSIS: China's shrinking population will determine how fast the global population declines
The 2021 rate of 1.15 is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population, also well below the US and Australian rates of 1.7 and 1.6, and even below ageing Japan's unusually low rate of 1.3.
But mainly the slide is because, even before the restrictions, Chinese women were becoming reluctant to have children and resistant to incentives toOne theory is that the one-child policy got them used to small families. Other theories involve the rising cost of living and the increasing marriage age, which delays births and dampens the desire to have children.
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