(Bloomberg) -- China’s trade and inflation data this week will likely signal that the economy’s recovery remains fragile, keeping pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.Most Read from BloombergTesla’s $41,000 Model X Discount Unlocks Subsidies Musk Wanted GoneCovid Is Back. Is It Time to Pull Out Our Masks Again?BMW Unwraps Next-Generation EV to Take on Tesla, China’s BYDJimmy Buffett, Singer Who Spun Margaritas Into Gold, Dies at 76Mohamed Al Fayed, Tycoon Who Clashed With Royals, D
Thursday’s trade report is expected to show exports and imports contracted again in August from a year earlier, although at a milder pace than in July, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Beijing has taken more concerted steps in recent days to shore up the ailing housing market, while also stepping up its defense of the currency and expanding some tax breaks to households. It may take some time for those policy measures to show up in the economic data, though.“The mortgage rate cuts announced by China’s regulators are bigger than we previously envisaged, and are well designed to stimulate consumption while avoiding inflating more property bubbles.
The same day, the Institute for Supply Management releases results of its August survey of service providers. Economists forecast activity expanded at a moderate pace during the month. Growth data the following day are likely to point to only a meager expansion of the economy in the second quarter as the impact of a slowdown in China and elevated borrowing costs weigh.
ECB officials will get a final chance to comment before their quiet period ahead of the policy meeting begins Thursday. President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel both speak on Monday, with Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco due to appear a day later. Poland’s central bank faces a crunch decision on whether to start cutting rates even after inflation failed to slow into single digits, a key condition previously laid out by Governor Adam Glapinski to start monetary easing.
On the same day, data from Turkey will likely show inflation accelerated back above 50% in July. The country’s new central bank governor, Hafize Gaye Erkan, has said inflation won’t peak until the second quarter of next year at about 60%.
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