China recorded 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2022, the lowest rate since records began in 1949, and a 10-per-cent drop from 2021
, but a bigger problem looms on the horizon. According to statistics released Tuesday, the country’s population, the largest in the world, shrank last year for the first time since a major famine during the Mao era.
Last year was the first time deaths outnumbered births since the 1960s, when China saw widespread famine brought on by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward, an effort to radically reform the country’s then-still-agrarian economy. Manufacturing is already beginning to shift away from China as a result of growing labour costs and unpredictable government policies, and a declining population will likely hasten this. Already, Apple, perhaps the most iconic beneficiary of China’s manufacturing boom in recent decades, has begun moving some plants to India and Southeast Asia.
The costs of caring for elderly relatives will have an outsized effect on many families given the “one-child policy” resulted in some working-age couples supporting as many as 12 people as well as any children they might choose to have.
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