China’s abandonment of its three-year COVID-zero policy will lead to short-term disruption, but its economy should rebound by mid-2023.
The tsunami of COVID-19 cases engulfing China sets up a bumpy road for Australia’s largest trading partner in early 2023, as Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned., China is likely to rebound to more normal economic conditions by about the middle of this year.The economic fallout from the current COVID-19 disruption may not be long-lasting, assuming there is no broader domestic backlash in China against President Xi Jinping following the surge in cases.
China’s factory production shrank for a fifth straight month in December, according to the Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index released on Tuesday. The bumper iron ore price being received by BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group will underwrite the federal government’s tax revenue and push the budget close to balance in the 2022-23 financial year.last month could be any easing of trade restrictions imposed on $20 billion worth of annual exports of barley, beef, wine, seafood and coal.Overall, Moody’s Analytics lead economist for China, Harry Murphy Cruise, says China’s 2023 outlook is a “tale of two halves”.
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