Emerging Asian currencies have been less attractive than most of their global peers as carry-trade targets over the past year but they are now catching up.
Policy makers in Asia have stayed relatively hawkish in a bid to contain inflation, just as their peers in other developing nations start to cut interest rates as domestic inflation is tamed. Thailand, India and the Philippines are all seeing implied returns from forwards higher than recent averages, while the opposite it true for every emerging market country out of Asia, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
Asian central banks have pushed back against possible rate cuts as a surge in oil and food costs threatens to push up inflation. Higher rice prices have added to inflation concerns in Indonesia and the Philippines, while climbing energy costs have done the same in South Korea and Thailand. Traders aren’t pricing in a full quarter-percentage point rate cut in either of Korea, Malaysia, Thailand or India over the next 12 months, swaps show.
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