New modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator suggests Canadian oil production will plummet by 2050 if the world achieves its Paris target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within that time.
The report, released Tuesday, marks the first time the regulator has presented a long-term outlook for Canadian energy using net-zero as a baseline.
That would prompt a collapse in global oil prices, to as low as US$35 per barrel by 2030 and US$24 per barrel by 2050, it says. “Because there will be less demand for hydrocarbons, producers of hydrocarbons will need to be increasingly efficient at managing their costs in order to remain competitive.”
The report also looked at what would happen in a"business as usual" case, which assumes no additional efforts to reduce emissions beyond what is already in place, and no further attempts to reach Paris climate targets. But he acknowledged that under the global net-zero scenario, the rapid decline in oil prices would put pressure on Canadian companies to drastically reduce their costs in order to remain profitable.
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