Canada's inflation rate is expected to fall significantly this year. Here's why

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Canada's inflation rate is expected to fall significantly this year. Here's why
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Inflation, which first began creeping higher in 2021, took off dramatically last year and peaked at 8.1 per cent in the summer

OTTAWA — After a steep and rapid climb in prices, Canada's inflation rate is expected to fall significantly this year, giving comfort to economists worried about untamed price growth but little relief to Canadians who have fallen behind.The run-up in prices was sparked by what Desjardins' chief economist Jimmy Jean called a "perfect storm" — the reopening of economies after COVID-19 restrictions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the disruptions in supply chains.

A base-year effect refers to the impact of price movements from a year ago on the calculation of the year-over-year inflation rate. Economists tracking month-over-month changes in prices have noticed price pressures easing for a while now. The forecasts come with a major caveat, however: Canada must be spared from unexpected global events that could cause another rise in inflation.

"A good part of the purchasing power erosion we saw over the last year or so, that's likely to be permanent, unfortunately," Jean said. "Unless and until we see incomes pick up." With affordability still top of mind for many Canadians, Jean said "governments are going to be under pressure to perhaps offer more support, especially for the households that are very in need."

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