Canada’s declining productivity streak adds to inflation problem

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Canada’s declining productivity streak adds to inflation problem
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The Bank of Canada had expected productivity to improve as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has fallen in eleven of the last 12 quarters, taking it back to its 2016 level

Canada’s record of declining productivity over the past three years is likely to make it more difficult for the Bank of Canada to tame inflation, raising the prospect of additional interest rate hikes even as the economy slows.had expected productivity, or output per hour worked, to improve as the economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, it has fallen in eleven of the last 12 quarters, taking it back to its 2016 level.

“Our own forecast is that productivity growth will turn around, but that is a risk to the outlook and if productivity growth continues declining it will make it more difficult to get inflation back to target,” Macklem said.will return to its 2 per cent target in the middle of 2025. But data on Tuesday showed it rising more than expected to 4 per cent in August, led by higher gasoline prices, while wage growth accelerated last month to an annual rate of 5.2 per cent.

Money markets have moved to price in another rate increase by the BoC over the coming months. A switch to easing is expected by the end of 2024 but at a slower pace than at the Federal Reserve.

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