Scientists estimate the area burned in an average summer may jump as much as 50% by 2050. Read more at straitstimes.com.
SACRAMENTO, California – The extent of area burned in California’s summer wildfires increased about fivefold from 1971 to 2021, and climate change was a major reason why, according to a new analysis. Scientists estimate the area burned in an average summer may jump as much as 50 per cent by 2050.
Mr Marco Turco, a climate researcher at the University of Murcia in Spain, and colleagues designed the study to try to identify how much of the increase in the burned area of California fires was due to climate change, and how much to natural variability. They conducted a statistical analysis of temperature and forest-fire data for California summers in the period 1971 to 2021.
Many published studies have shown the impact of climate change on California forest fires. A key factor cited in them is the dryness of the air, which scientists call “vapour pressure deficit” – the difference between how much moisture is in the air and how much it can potentially hold at a certain temperature.
“This was quite surprising to me,” Mr Turco said. “I ran a lot of tests in order to be sure that this really simple model works. For me, it was too easy, and too simple to have this strong results.” But ultimately, he said, “the relationship is very strong.”
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