Torrential rains are driving rivers of mud and debris in the Golden State – but what exactly is ailing the parched west?
These low-pressure storm systems help create ARs, pushing them from the Pacific to the coast. A “bomb cyclone is a storm whose pressure is really falling rapidly and in that case it is rapidly strengthening”, Lamers said.But unlike hurricanes or other storms where the center is the strongest, bomb cyclones can generate the worst weather at their edges.Bomb cyclones are borne out ofa term meteorologists use to measure drops in pressure at different latitudes.
“It is like a feedback loop,” said Dr Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and a researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “When you have an AR already present, the AR can supercharge the new cyclone, which can then strengthen the AR.” These two types of systems have come together to create the series of storms hitting California over the last few weeks.
But these patterns produce correlated effects – which are helpful to predict possibilities – and not failsafe rules. “The basic takeaway is that an El Niño or La Niña is not a guarantee of a certain type of weather, it is usually just a stronger indication that you are going to get drier, wetter, warmer or colder conditions than usual,” Lamers said. The presence of these strong storms also doesn’t necessarily mean the wet trend will continue through the winter.
The destructive set of storms “is consistent with what climate models have been predicting should occur in a warming earth”, Ralph said. “Climate change super-charges the storms because there is more water vapor available, creating more rain and snow. This pattern is consistent – where we go from a very deep drought to a flood situation.”
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