Bitcoin was trading at $60.2k and within a two-month demand zone, but one metric suggested that a deeper retracement could follow this time.
crashed by 7.46% from the local high it set earlier on 30 April. At press time, it was trading just above $59.9k, within the demand zone of $59.2k-$61k.
The analyst compared the current Bitcoin price movement with what happened in the 2020 and 2016 cycles, right after the halving. While history might not repeat exactly, it certainly does rhyme.The 2024 price action after the halving more closely resembled 2016 than 2020, asserted RektCapital. Back then, an 11% wick downward came 21 days after the halving.The $60k region has been a technically sound support zone in the past two months. However, each retest of the support weakens it.
This confirmed the bearish strength on the HTF, and reduced the chances of another bounce from the $60k demand zone. The Open Interest was also in decline and outlined bearish sentiment.The adjusted spent output profit ratio saw a massive upward move to 1.1 a month ago but has fallen to 1.029 at press time. In May and August 2020, a similar scenario played out.The estimated leverage ratio jumped past 0.18 multiple times in 2024 but was forced to fall back.
However, it does not mean BTC will see a positive price reaction. A move below the $59.4k mark will likely see prices fall to the $55k and $52k support zones.Akashnath Sumukar works as a Senior Journalist at AMBCrypto. Based in Chennai, India, he has been an avid follower of the cryptocurrency market since Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycle of 2017. A graduate in Chemical Engineering, he is an expert in technical analysis.
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