BREAKING Bank of Canada releases minutes for first time: Read the full text here
Governing Council began discussions by reviewing recent international developments. Notable developments included:continued easing of global supply chain bottlenecksOverall, global economic activity, especially in the United States, the euro area and China, was somewhat above the Bank’s expectations in the October Monetary Policy Report .
Council spent considerable time discussing the situation in China. The rapid shift in the Chinese approach to COVID-19 was seen as a new source of uncertainty. Most notably, the outlook for oil prices was subject to an upside risk because of China’s reopening. If Chinese demand were to rebound by more than anticipated, oil prices could rise substantially, putting renewed upside pressure on Canadian and global inflation.
Members acknowledged that much of the recent decline in headline inflation was due to lower gasoline prices, but they also viewed the decline in durable goods inflation as evidence that the effects of higher interest rates were spreading through the economy and slowing demand. Members also agreed that services inflation was likely to be persistent and acknowledged that food and shelter inflation remained particularly high.
With these developments as a backdrop, Council members explored several assumptions in the Bank’s projection. Members noted there could be a downside risk to the Bank’s projection for business investment: due to the activity-sensitive nature of business investment, lower levels of economic activity could curtail investment plans. Conversely, with labour in short supply, businesses could seek to invest further to expand capacity.Article content
whether to maintain similar forward-looking language as in the previous policy statement or to adjust it to signal a pause
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