A recent report found B.C. will blow its oil and gas emissions target without a cap. But that path requires diverting a huge amount of electricity needed elsewhere, experts warn.
The approval of several B.C. gas projects could triple the province’s emissions targets for the oil and gas sector by the end of the decade unless a hard ceiling is put on the industry’s carbon pollution, a new report says.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy welcomed the report but said Pembina's emission forecasts were “significantly higher” than the province’s estimates. The spokesperson said that's largely because the B.C. government's model assumes a large percentage of natural gas going to LNG facilities will be diverted from other uses, "like pipeline exports," instead of coming from new B.C. gas production.
Its current CleanBC roadmap aims to turn that failure around and reduce emissions 40 per cent below 2007 levels by 2030. By then, the government says all new buildings and 90 per cent of all light-duty vehicles will produce zero emissions. The province says it will become net-zero by mid-century, absorbing as much carbon emissions as it produces, and doing its part to avoid fallout from global warming.
But when Gorski ran the numbers through a model, he and his colleagues found the scale of electricity B.C.'s LNG projects would need in the coming years was immense, and could put them in direct competition with other industries looking to decarbonize. B.C.'s surplus of clean electricity a 'myth' Roland Clift, an energy expert at the University of British Columbia currently advising the province, said he hasn’t checked all the modelling in the Pembina report, but that its conclusions largely match his own.
Clift partially agrees with BC Hydro’s emphasis on creating more efficiencies in the current grid. He said that by his calculations, installing more energy efficient heating and cooling devices like heat pumps gives you the best carbon emission reductions for your money.
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