OPINION: The risks are in diplomacy, execution, economics, operations, and even cultural ways of thinking about war. But the Albanese government is taking them all on.
Brokered by the conservative side of politics in 2021, the tripartite agreement to develop Australia’s own nuclear propulsion submarine fleet is an audacious move that Anthony Albanese’s government will now own, with all its associated risks. And the operational, strategic, diplomatic, economic and execution risks are legion.David RoweThat harmed relations with Paris, and left some regional neighbours and partners uncomfortable and publicly critical.
Similarly, moves to recognise the Pacific’s environmental needs has helped to refresh regional ties. So, AUKUS isn’t necessarily seen as a negative by the neighbours, once they are listened to, briefed, and treated respectfully. But further risks remain. But to focus on China’s military muscle is to miss a key phenomenon. Western strategic thinking is encapsulated in chess and the work of the Prussian strategist
The funding model has yet to be explained. It doesn’t seem feasible to fund it by stripping other defence projects. Strategists recognise this is no silver bullet, and that mitigating risks and hedging against uncertainty requires a suite of capabilities. Like in the game “rock, paper, scissors”, each arm of defence brings strengths and weaknesses offset by complementarity.The execution risks are legion.
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