Economic theory and the available data justify a more modest, realistic outlook for productivity gains from AI.
While some believe that machines soon will do everything humans can do, ushering in a new age of boundless prosperity, other predictions are at least more grounded. For example, Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI will boost global GDP by 7 per cent over the next decade, and the McKinsey Global Institute anticipates that the annual GDP growth rate could increase by 3-4 percentage points between now and 2040.
What about the share of tasks that will be affected by AI and related technologies? Using numbers from recent studies, I estimate this to be around 4.6 per cent, implying that AI will increase TFP by only 0.66 per cent over 10 years, or by 0.06 per cent annually. Of course, since AI will also drive an investment boom, the increase in GDP growth could be a little larger, perhaps in the 1-1.5 per cent range.
Similarly, we are unlikely to see far more than 4.6 per cent of tasks being taken over, because AI is nowhere close to being able to perform most manual or social tasks .As of 2019, a survey of essentially all US businesses found that only about 1.5 per cent of them had any AI investments. Even if such investments have picked up over the past year and a half, we have a long, long way to go before AI becomes widespread.
But many of the 4.6 per cent of tasks that could feasibly be automated within 10 years – evaluating applications, diagnosing health problems, providing financial advice – do not have such clearly defined objective measures of success, and often involve complex context-dependent variables . In these cases, learning from outside observation is much harder, and generative AI models must rely instead on the behaviour of existing workers.
Philippines Latest News, Philippines Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Canberra’s AIS to get $250m facelift ahead of Brisbane 2032 Olympics and Paralympics7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »
OpenAI to use FT journalism to train artificial intelligence systemsUnder deal, ChatGPT users will receive summaries and quotes from Financial Times content and links to articles
Read more »
Artificial intelligence has psychological impacts our brains might not be ready for, expert warnsWhile artificial intelligence promises to make life easier, the technology is already affecting our mental health and understanding of reality, warns one neuroscientist.
Read more »
Michael Schumacher’s family celebrates big win after artificial intelligence-generated magazine article7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »
Artificial intelligence: Scarlett Johansson takes on Sam Altman over ‘eerily’ similar AI voiceThe Hollywood actor says she was “shocked” by the use of a voice “eerily similar” to her own in the latest worry for the ChatGPT maker.
Read more »
How South-East Asia's pig butchering scammers are using artificial intelligence technologyAI tools such as face-swapping and chatbots are being used by South-East Asia's crime syndicates to make their scams more efficient and effective. However, some operations appear to be having less success with the new tech than others.
Read more »