Earlier projections found stronger action to be enough to preserve the summer ice. Read more at straitstimes.com.
BERLIN - The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s floating sea ice could occur as early as the 2030s, according to a new scientific study – about a decade sooner than researchers previously predicted.
Sea ice reflects solar radiation back into space, so the less ice there is, the faster the Arctic warms. This causes the Greenland ice sheet to melt more quickly, adding to sea-level rise globally. “Our result suggests that the Arctic amplification will be coming faster and stronger,” said Prof Seung-Ki Min, a climate scientist at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea and another author of the new paper. “That means the related impacts will be also coming faster.”
This doesn’t mean there would be zero ice on the water – icy patches are expected to remain in certain corners of the Arctic for some time to come. Instead, the threshold scientists use is 1 million sq km of ice. This is less than 15 per cent of the Arctic’s seasonal minimum ice cover in the late 1970s.
Under three of these scenarios, representing moderate to high increases in emissions, the September ice falls below the critical threshold for the first time as early as the 2030s, about a decade earlier than previously estimated.
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