TopPicks from Andrew Pyle, senior financial advisor and portfolio manager, CIBC Wood Gundy
FOCUS: North American equities The recovery in equities over the past number of weeks reflects an overly optimistic view toward a pivot in central bank policy and the ability to engineer either just a slowdown in the economy or mild recession. The technical picture for the broader market still hasn’t changed and for the S&P 500, this will require a break of the August intraday high of 4,325 to create the condition for a sustained rally and or end to the bear market.
That said, it is atypical to see equities bottom before a recession so this rally looks like a head fake. Friday’s U.S. payrolls report has not diminished the pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain an upward trajectory for rates, even if the per-meeting magnitudes are less than what we have seen recently.
I expect to see the first real damage to payrolls and consumer spending in the first quarter as depleting personal savings and a lagged response of consumer credit growth to rising interest rates suggest a possible contraction. Analysts were a little early on weak employment calls for last week, but we are at the start of a trend, where staffing cuts by large tech firms eventually flow through to small and medium-sized businesses.
Heading into the first half of 2023, the better risk-reward play is still in bonds. This involves shorter-dated investment grade corporates trading at a discount and building duration in Canadian and U.S. government notes.
Philippines Latest News, Philippines Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Andrew Garfield surprised fans when he showed up at a Toronto theatreToronto is a hotspot to see celebrities and big Marvel stars are no exception to this rule. Andrew Garfield was spotted in the city this past weeke...
Read more »
As Musk is learning, content moderation is a messy jobNow that he’s back on Twitter, neo\u002DNazi Andrew Anglin wants somebody to explain the rules.
Read more »
As Musk is learning, content moderation is a messy jobNow that he’s back on Twitter, neo\u002DNazi Andrew Anglin wants somebody to explain the rules.
Read more »
Opinion | Just offering remote work is not enough to retain top employeesWorkplace trend towards working from home might not be enough to retain top employees, writes HR expert Karen Brownrigg, as employees seek out companies that invest in their careers
Read more »
Geno Smith hits Metcalf for late TD, Seahawks top Rams 27-23The win keeps the Seahawks in the thick of the NFL playoff race
Read more »