Alberta election: UCP has slight lead over NDP but leaders in dead heat, Ipsos poll finds
The battle for seats in Calgary will be competitive, with both parties sharing roughly equal support.“The only path to victory for the NDP comes through those narrow, narrow, close contests in the city of Calgary. It seems like all the close races that they have to win are in Calgary,” Braid said.
There are no new high-profile faces in this election: NDP Leader Rachel Notley has been premier of Alberta before and Danielle Smith unsuccessfully ran for the job as leader of the Wildrose in 2012.“This is not looking like it’s going to be an election about leadership. They are tied in terms of best premier numbers,” Braid said.The poll found it’s a dead heat: currently, 35 per cent of Albertans choose Smith and an identical 35 per cent choose Notley.
“I think it’s a case where these are not new personalities to Albertans. They know these leaders very well. This is not an election where you’ve got a new leader who can come in and either wow people or turn them off.” Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said the numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise, with the UCP having undergone a fair bit of change while in power.
“Whereas Rachel Notley, the NDP, is very traditionally, ‘We need a new government and the government has had their time. We are that change.'” Ipsos said the change numbers are very similar to the start of the 2019 campaign that saw the UCP defeat the incumbent NDP in a landslide, when it was 52 per cent time for change and 31 per cent deserve re-election. Braid said half of voters being open to change is not a particularly high number.
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