WASHINGTON : African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to pull people out of poverty, according to a study that shows a declining share of factory jobs for most countries by mid-century.
The new paper released on Monday by the Center for Global Development shows there will be fewer factory workers in 2050 globally than there are now, and that even in poor countries with abundant cheap labor, manufacturing job growth will stagnate.
While this may create some space for other developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America to move into lower-end manufacturing in low-end sectors abandoned by China, it won't be enough to replicate the transformative East Asian development model of moving from Agriculture to manufacturing.
The study projects global growth through the year 2050 and models changes in the economies of 59 countries accounting for about three quarters of the world’s GDP and population.
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