Today marks one year since Putin began Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Take a look back on the key moments during the last devastating 12 months, capped off by the UN's vote to demand Russia end their war. 9News DETAILS:
"Russia currently has the initiative and the advantage on the battlefield," he said, noting Kyiv's acute shortage of ammunition.
Igor Strelkov, a former Russian security officer who led separatist forces in the Donbas when fighting erupted there in 2014, warned that any big offensive could be disastrous for Russia because its preparation would be impossible to conceal and attackers would face a devastating response. Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at RUSI in London, predicted any Russian offensive would fail, but said it could drain Ukraine's resources and keep it from preparing its own large-scale counteroffensive.
He said Ukraine has a window of opportunity of six to eight months to reclaim more land, noting that Russia could launch another mobilisation to recruit up to 500,000 more troops who could be readied for combat after at least six months of training. Major Ukrainian battlefield successes this summer could fuel "significant political turmoil in Russia, because at that point, Putin's own position within the leadership becomes very, very difficult to see as tenable", he said.
"The Russians are digging in for the long haul. They have no intention of losing," she said. "Putin has made it very clear that he's prepared to sacrifice whatever it takes. His message there is basically saying you can't possibly counteract me, because I'm willing to do whatever and I've got so much more manpower."
Moscow's nuclear doctrine states that it could use those weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional forces threatening "the very existence of the Russian state", a formulation that offers broad room for interpretation and abrupt escalation.
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