But it is also true more broadly, with the time of year inviting an examination of the intersection of economics, national politics and global geopolitics.You would be forgiven if, as a starting point, you expected these three areas to be in alignment. After all, they are deeply interconnected, which suggests self-reinforcing dynamics. But 2024 brought some unusual dispersion in this relationship that actually widened, rather than narrowed, over the course of the year.Begin with geopolitics.
Far from weakening, as most economists expected, the US pulled even further ahead. Given the amount of foreign capital the US is attracting and the scale of its investment in the future drivers of productivity, competitiveness and growth, it is likely to continue outperforming other major economies in 2025.One consequence of this success is that the US Federal Reserve did not deliver the soothing 1.75- to 2-percentage-point interest-rate cuts that markets were pricing in a year ago.
Scenario For The Global Economy In 2025
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