CALGARY — As politicians spar over whether 2035 or 2050 should be the deadline to attain a net-zero electricity grid in Alberta, the correct answer may lie somewhere in the middle.
The pace of the energy transition is the crux of the latest political spat between Alberta and the federal government, with Premier Danielle Smith vowing last week that her province will not comply with Ottawa's draft clean electricity regulations aimed at getting Canada's electricity grid to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
"We do not believe 2035 is possible. From an Alberta perspective, it is not doable," said Capital Power CEO Avik Dey in an interview."However, we do believe 2045 is achievable." "Theoretically, it's possible — we can take a stab at all of this. But jamming it into a short period of time is really going to cause the bubble to burst in some places. It's going to be painful for the economy and for the consumer at large."
Blake Shaffer, an associate professor of economics and co-director of the Net Zero Electricity Research Initiative at the University of Calgary, said it's not a foregone conclusion that electricity costs for consumers will rise due to the energy transition. Some economic models show consumer prices actually falling as cheaper resources — especially renewables, which have tumbled in cost over the last decade — come onto the grid, he said.
Shaffer said this kind of flexibility wouldn't actually lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions because carbon pricing will discourage generators from using fossil fuels unless absolutely necessary.
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